Short-term
2026–2028 — Impacts already visible or imminent
Geopolitics & Global Power: Shortterm (20262028) Current State The global AI race has crystallized into a triangular competition among the United States, China, and the European Union, with each bloc pursuing fundamentally different strategies. As of early 2026, this contest has moved beyo...
Medium-term
2028–2033 — Transformations underway, accelerating
Geopolitics & Global Power: Mediumterm (20282033) Current State By 2028, the geopolitical landscape of AI will have evolved from the initial scramble of export controls and regulatory frameworks into a more structurally entrenched competition. The patterns established in 20242027 USle...
Long-term
2033–2046 — Projected scenarios, structural shifts
Geopolitics & Global Power: Longterm (20332046) Current State The longterm horizon for AI geopolitics extends into profoundly uncertain territory. By 2033, the foundational dynamics established in the 20242032 period USChina bifurcation, European regulatory leadership without market ...