Short-term
2026–2028 — Impacts already visible or imminent
Security & Conflict: Shortterm (20262028) Current State The integration of artificial intelligence into security, defense, and conflict domains has accelerated from experimental to operational across multiple fronts. By early 2026, AI is no longer a future consideration for military planne...
Medium-term
2028–2033 — Transformations underway, accelerating
Security & Conflict: Mediumterm (20282033) Current State By 2028, the trends observable in 2026 have matured from emergent phenomena into structural features of the global security environment. Autonomous weapons systems are deployed in active conflicts. AIdriven cyber operations constitu...
Long-term
2033–2046 — Projected scenarios, structural shifts
Security & Conflict: Longterm (20332046) Current State The longterm horizon for AI in security and conflict extends into a period of profound transformation where the relationship between human agency, machine capability, and organized violence is fundamentally restructured. The trends th...