Short-term
2026–2028 — Impacts already visible or imminent
Job Destruction: Shortterm (20262028) Current State The first wave of AIdriven job destruction is no longer theoretical it is measurable and accelerating. By early 2026, multiple indicators confirm that generative AI and AI agent systems have moved from pilot projects to production dep...
Medium-term
2028–2033 — Transformations underway, accelerating
Job Destruction: Mediumterm (20282033) Current State By 2028, the initial wave of AIdriven job displacement concentrated in clerical, customer service, and routine knowledge work will have been absorbed into labor market statistics. The mediumterm period represents a qualitative sh...
Long-term
2033–2046 — Projected scenarios, structural shifts
Job Destruction: Longterm (20332046) Current State Projecting job destruction over a 1320 year horizon requires acknowledging deep uncertainty while identifying structural trajectories that are already visible. The longterm question is not merely "which jobs disappear" but "does the conc...